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Over
the 21 years since I joined British Airways, the international
passenger market has grown by an annual average of more
than 6 percent and freight, by 7.5 percent. This means
that passenger demand has tripled over that period and
the cargo market has quadrupled. A pretty steady business,
you would think.
Yet, behind those benign averages lies a white-knuckle
ride for even the most hard-headed of business people.
In this industry, exhilaration and exasperation go hand
in hand.
Outstanding -- even breathtaking -- technical, customer
service and business achievement vie for attention with
disappointment and disaster.
In recent years, fortunes have been lost and great
companies have gone out of business as the industry
came under siege from a sequence of appalling events
outside its control.
Since 2000, airlines have made collective, global losses
of more than US$30 billion and around 400,000 jobs have
been shed. Some famous names like Swissair, Sabena,
Air Afrique and TWA have been wiped off the airport
information screens. The major U.S. airlines have clung
on because of government handout and loan guarantee,
not to mention the cosy cushioning effect of the Sherman
Act (not that we would seek such uncompetitive remedies).
At British Airways, I am pleased to say that we have
survived the onslaught, even though the situation has
been extremely tough and extremely worrying at times.
In the 2001/2002 financial year, we recorded our first
pre-tax loss in 20 years.
Serious concerns were raised in the U.K. media about
our ability to pull through. Some commentators felt
that BA was heading for the last runway.
We have come through more or less intact and so have
our partners in the Oneworld alliance, most notably
for Hong Kong, Cathay Pacific and Qantas.
Security
One of the issues which has defined my time in aviation
is security. The industry was already in a state of
precaution following the spate of hijackings during
the 1970s. Then came incidents such as the loss, presumed
sabotage, of the Air-India 747 over the Atlantic Ocean;
the hijacking of the TWA 727 in Beirut; and, of course,
the Pan Am Lockerbie bombing of 1988. Security against
what we might call conventional terrorism became pretty
effective, but then, shortly after the new millennium
began, a quite different terror phenomenon appeared.
The appalling events of 9/11 in New York, of Bali and
of 3/11 in Spain, together with a background of armed
conflict in certain world hot spots, placed us in a
new dimension.
Without doubt, security is now the defining issue for
all of us, wherever we are and whatever we do.
I don't know what the current climate means for other
business sectors, but at British Airways, we have spent
an addition of 100 million on enhanced security since
September 2001. The cost to the industry of new protective
measures since 9/11 is some US$5 billion.
Clearer skies
The irony of all this is that the economic outlook
appears better than it has done for some while. Ever
an indicator of economic conditions, air transport is
-- all things being equal -- expecting 7 percent growth
on global passenger traffic and 4 percent in cargo volumes
this year. On services within the Asia-Pacific region,
a 14 percent increase in passenger business is forecast
(albeit compared to a 9.4 percent downturn last year
because of SARS).
British Airways is far from the biggest player on the
global scene, but we are proud of our long record. We
have, for example, now been serving Hong Kong (with
one notable break) for almost 70 years. We employ directly
some 162 people in Hong Kong and provide work for many
more.
The airline is planning to increase its investment
here, with an increase in Hong Kong-London frequency
from 14 to 17 flights weekly in June.
We are also weighing up new opportunities for expansion
in China, following the recent conclusion of a progressive
new air services agreement with the U.K. We will initially
be stepping up frequency between Beijing and London
-- going from three to four flights weekly next month,
then to five flights weekly in June.
I am pleased that the further strengthening of links
with Hong Kong and China will begin before I step down
in July. After then, I will follow progress with great
interest and much pride in our long relationship.
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