This projection is based on the Korea International Trade Association's EBSI (Export Business Survey Index), which posted 119.4. EBSI is an index ranging from a maximum 200 to minimum 0 with 100 representing a balanced opinion. The higher it goes beyond 100, the more optimistic, the lower it falls below 100, the more pessimistic.

According to the latest survey results, industrial electronics, electronic parts and transportation machinery will likely lead the nation's exports in the fourth quarter, while exports of fishery products, fabrics, etc. are feared to slow down.

This EBSI survey involved 855 major export firms during the August 18-30 period, not accounting for the influence of recent Typhoon 'Maemi.' So, there exist possibility that unlike expectations, export business conditions in the fourth quarter may face certain difficulties.

In order to sustain continued export growth, preferential supports are needed for early restoration of typhoon-damaged production facilities, financing for related export enterprises and manpower supply, together with foreign exchange rate stabilization and elimination of labor-management unrest.

By industry, the economic conditions for primary and light industry products may not change, but a brisk export trend in the heavy and chemical industry is forecast to lead the overall economic upturn in the fourth quarter.

In the fourth quarter, export firms are expected to continue the upward trend in electronics and electric products such as industrial electronics and electronic parts, basic industrial machinery and transport machinery. However, they may experience weakness in export competitiveness and profitability, while fabrics exports will likely see a setback.

Export discussions and contracts are projected to be active in the fourth quarter, but export competitiveness and profitability is likely to weaken continuously. Financial situation, facility investment and employment are expected to maintain the third-quarter level without much change.

Export businesses pointed to impediments including market encroachment by developing nations (19.0%), including China, expansion of won currency exchange rate fluctuation (16.7%), economic recession of importing countries (16.6%), raw materials price hike (13.0%) and 6.8% each for financial difficulties and logistics.