Less than fourteen months before quota's elimination, US importers are not threatened by limits imposed by their country this year.

According to latest available data, US apparel imports began falling in August with less saturation in quotas than in the past years as a result.

Three embargoes on Vietnamese apparel

In addition to the slowdown of the US market, apparel production was partly transferred from a series of Asian low-cost countries to Vietnam, since US authorities did not apply limits on Vietnamese products until May 1st.

As a result of the surge in imports from Vietnam, quotas just imposed by Washington were already filled or are expected to be rapidly filled for a large series of categories.

The United States already placed three embargoes in categories 334/335 (other M&B cotton coats), 342/642 (cotton and MMF skirts) and 645/646 (MMF sweaters).

Other embargoes could follow since quota fill rates already reach 99.40% in category 351/651 (cotton and MMF nightwear/pajamas), 98.40% in category 647/648 (MMF trousers) and 95.30% in category 347/348 (cotton trousers).

In this week of the year, quota fill rates should not exceed 77% in theory since limits were not imposed in the first four months of the year. For all other countries, quota fill rates should not be above 85%.

Vietnamese exports in categories 345 (cotton sweaters), 638/639 (MMF knit shirts) and 352/652 (cotton and MMF underwear) are also under threat.

Philippine saturation in ten categories

In addition to Vietnam, The Philippines is also facing quota saturation in a large series of US categories, as a clear sign that apparel exports to the United States rebounded in 2003.

Embargoes may be expected in categories 335 (W&G cotton coats) and 635 (W&G MMF cots) where US limits were already reached.

In categories 443 (M&B wool suits) and 338/339 (cotton knit shirts), fill rates were 99.80% and 97.10% on November 4th, respectively.

No less than 10 categories of products could finally face US embargoes, in theory. Additional adjustments by the US trade administration could actually help Philippine plants in delivering their products to US retailers.

Other countries such as India are unusually free of any saturation in US quotas. As a result of the rise of the Indian rupee, India's apparel exports under limits to the United States were down 41% in volume terms in September from the same month last year, falling 41% in US$ terms and 44% in rupee terms.

India's total apparel sales to the US declined 39% in volume terms at the same time, falling 33% in US$ terms and 37% in rupee terms.

US imports from Indonesia were also depressed in October with quota fill rates no more rapidly rising, compared with previous months.

Arising tension in wool categories

In addition to usual sensitive categories such as 347/348 (cotton trousers), quota saturation is surprisingly looming for wool products from a series of countries.

Wool sweaters from Hong Kong are not far from filling their quota in category 445/446 (96.70% on November 4th). The same for wool coats and suits from Indonesia, South Korea and Ukraine, in addition to wool trousers from Belarus.